Two years earlier, while the author was conducting key informant interviews (KIIs) for his thesis on private military contractors (PMCs), a retired senior officer of the Bangladesh Army had opined that the conflicts in South and Southeast Asia are different in nature from the conflicts in Africa, West Asia, and East Europe, and PMCs are unlikely to play an important role in this region. However, recent events, such as the arrest of one United States (US) and six Ukrainian citizens in India on the charge of mercenary activities, demonstrate the growing involvement of PMCs in the multitudes of complex conflicts in this region. Taking into account the recent phase of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), this development demonstrates the emergence of a new and complicated threat to the national security of regional states.

Detention of PMCs in India

On 13 March, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), the principal counter-terrorism service of India, arrested a US and six Ukrainian citizens from Delhi, Lucknow, and Kolkata. The detained individuals stand accused of travelling to the restive Northeast Indian state of Mizoram without obtaining the required Protected Area Permit (PAP), illegally crossing the border into Myanmar, and training Myanmar’s insurgent ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in drone warfare.

Ukraine has rejected the allegations against its citizens citing lack of evidence, while the US has so far refrained from commenting on the issue. However, the arrests did not occur out of the blue. In December 2024, the Indian Union Ministry of Home Affairs, based on intelligence inputs, had asked the state governments of Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur, as well as the Foreigners Regional Registration Office (FRRO), to monitor the movement of foreigners in the region, and reinstated the requirement for PAP to visit the states.

In March 2025, Lalduhoma, the Chief Minister of Mizoram, informed the Mizoram Legislative Assembly that his government possesses specific intelligence about the infiltration of Ukrainian veterans of the Russo–Ukrainian War into Myanmar’s Chin State to train EAOs fighting against the military-controlled government of the country. Moreover, Indian media outlets report that the six arrested Ukrainians were part of a 14-member group who had infiltrated into Myanmar, and Russian intelligence services had informed them of the activities of the group. Hence, the event is a direct spillover of the protracted and attritional Russo–Ukrainian War.

The Emergence of Ukrainian PMCs

Mercenaries, or soldiers for hire, have been a consistent feature of warfare since time immemorial. Particularly, a number of factors in the post-Cold War period, including the globalization of armed conflicts, state failures, the weakening of national militaries, and the sophistication of neo-imperialism, led to the proliferation of the use of PMCs in conflicts. At present, a number of great and regional powers, including the US, the United Kingdom (UK), France, China, Russia, Israel, South Africa, and Turkey, contain large numbers of private military companies (PMCs). In recent years, another European state has joined the fray – Ukraine.

After the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics [USSR] in 1991, hundreds of thousands of well-trained ex-soldiers in the post-Soviet states became unemployed overnight, and a fraction of them, many from the newly independent Ukraine, ended up serving as PMCs in numerous theaters, including Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Libya.

As a result of the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian War (2022–present), the Ukrainian Armed Forces has underwent substantial expansion, and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens have obtained experience in fighting modern, 21^st century warfare. The Russo–Ukrainian War has ushered in a new phase of the RMA by demonstrating the serious vulnerability of armoured and mechanized infantry forces to modern weapon systems, the difficulty in establishing air superiority over a large battlefield, and the high levels of effectiveness of low-cost, mass-produced, and remotely operated unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) – in colloquial language, combat drones – including First Person View (FPV) drones, bomber drones, and loitering munitions or suicide drones, against military and civilian targets. As a result, tens of thousands of Ukrainians have acquired valuable experience in waging drone warfare and organizing effective air defense.

However, what would happen to these well-trained personnel once the war is terminated? The war has devastated the Ukrainian economy, and post-war Ukraine is unlikely to be able to maintain its large military or absorb large numbers of ex-soldiers into civilian sectors. Hence, many Ukrainian ex-soldiers with critical combat experience are likely to end up as PMCs once the war is over.

In fact, the trend of ‘outsourcing’ Ukrainian military personnel to external wars has already been started by the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) – the military intelligence service of Ukraine. The HUR, acting in concert with Western powers, has so far deployed Ukrainian ‘specialists’ in several states, including Mali, Sudan, and Syria, to fight against real or perceived Russian interests. Moreover, after the outbreak of the ongoing US-Israeli War against Iran, Ukraine has deployed 201 drone experts to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Kuwait to help these states defend against Iranian drone strikes. Thus, Ukraine is engaged in a global proxy war against Russia and perceived Russian and pro-Russian actors and interests, and collaborating with Western powers to further their interests.

US and Ukrainian PMCs in Myanmar

The clandestine involvement of US and Ukrainian PMCs in conflicts in Myanmar and India is the latest addition to the complex dynamics. The arrested US citizen, Matthew Aaron Van Dyke, is the founder of US-registered PMC Sons of Liberty International (SOLI), and he participated in overt and covert fighting against the Libyan government under Muammar al-Gaddafi, the Syrian government under President Bashar al-Assad, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Russian forces in Ukraine, and the Venezuelan government under President Nicolas Maduro – all of which were or are geopolitical opponents of the US. Meanwhile, the six arrested Ukrainians – Maksym Honcharuk, Viktor Kaminskyi, Petro Hurba, Taras Slyviak, Marian Stefankiv, and Ivan Sukmanovskyi – have served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and participated in the Russo–Ukrainian War. Hence, the arrested individuals are not just ordinary PMCs but professionals with extensive experience.

The detained PMCs have reportedly trained EAOs in Myanmar’s Chin State in drone warfare and supplied a large consignment of drones from Europe to these outfits via India. Myanmar has been embroiled in a protracted and brutal civil war since March 2021, in which the military-controlled Bamar nationalist Myanmar government is locked in mortal conflict against oppositional National Unity Government (NUG) and EAOs – militant outfits representing numerous ethnic minorities of the country. China and Russia have traditionally maintained close political and military ties with the Myanmar government, while the Western World, including the US, has backed opposition groups. During the ongoing civil war, China and Russia have equipped the Tatmadaw – the Myanmar Armed Forces, enabling them to hold on against insurgents, and China has brokered ceasefires between Myanmar and several EAOs, giving the government a breathing space. On the other hand, the US has provided aid to the NUG and engaged with some EAOs. Hence, the civil war in Myanmar has turned into a proxy war, in which the Chin State has a distinct role to play.

The Kuki-Chin-Mizo peoples, alternatively known as Kuki-Chin, Kuki, Zomi, or Zo peoples, concentrated in Myanmar’s Chin State, India’s Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur States, and Bangladesh’s Chattogram Hill Tracts (CHT) region share common ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and religious ties. These peoples are waging, or previously waged, armed conflicts against these three polities. Currently, the Chin Brotherhood, composed of several ethnic Chin militant groups, control around 80% of the territory of the Chin State. At present, Mizoram is relatively peaceful, but factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) are active in Nagaland for an independent state of Nagalim, and Kuki militant groups, such as the Kuki National Army (KNA) and the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA), are locked in an ethnic conflict against the Meitei in Manipur. Meanwhile, the Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) is pushing for autonomy in the CHT.

These militant outfits are linked to one another, and use one another’s territory as bases, logistics hubs, and source of weapons. Particularly, the mountainous Chin State, which borders both India and Bangladesh, serves as a training ground for Kuki-Chin and other armed groups. So far, these groups are equipped with light infantry weapons, and in the case of groups in the Chin State, Manipur, and Nagaland, some heavier infantry support weapons. Hence, the security forces of these countries manage to maintain an edge over them. However, the Myanmar Civil War and the recent Indo–Pakistani conflict have demonstrated that Indian and Myanmar government forces have incorporated lessons of the Russo–Ukrainian War only in a limited manner and still heavily rely on 20^th century warfare methods. Hence, if these militant groups gain access to advanced drones used on the Ukrainian battlefield, they would gain a great advantage over security forces in these countries, because these states lack adequate drone support, air defense systems, and anti-drone capabilities.

Geopolitical Factors behind the Deployment of PMCs

So, why are US and Ukrainian mercenaries assisting ethno-nationalist militant outfits in Myanmar, who are linked to similar groups in India and Bangladesh?

First, mercenaries are chiefly motivated by financial incentives, and the EAOs have their sources of revenue, including localized tax collections, arms smuggling, and drug trafficking. So, the EAOs have the capacity to pay for PMCs, and it is possible that the arrested individuals were simply working for money, with no involvement of the US and Ukrainian governments.

Second, while money has a certain role to play, Van Dyke has a track record of fighting against the geopolitical opponents of the US, and in this case as well, the EAOs are fighting against the Myanmar government, another opponent of the US. Coupled with recent US overtures to EAOs and its open support for the NUG, it is likely the that US government was aware of and involved in Van Dyke’s activities at least to some extent. Meanwhile, the Tatmadaw does not have a layered and sophisticated air defense network, and if the EAOs get hold of advanced drones, the Tatmadaw would suffer serious losses against them. It has the capacity to potentially change the course of the war.

If the NUG and the EAOs succeed in overthrowing the current Myanmar government, a pro-US government is likely to be installed in Naypyidaw, and it would poss security and economic threats to China. Myanmar forms an important segment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its efforts to resolve the ‘Malacca dilemma.’ Also, the emergence of a pro-US Myanmar can create novel security threats for southern China. Moreover, Beijing and Moscow have already suffered diplomatic setbacks due to successful US-engineered regime change operations in Syria in 2024 and Venezuela in 2026. The fall of another anti-US government, this time in China’s backyard, would deliver another blow to China and Russia and discredit their efforts to create a multipolar world.

Finally, for several years now, rumours of clandestine US support for the establishment of a ‘Christian state’ – apparently composed of Christian Kuki-Chin-Mizo peoples – in the region have persisted in some media circles. The proposition indicates that the US is trying to weaken India so as to prevent its rise as a great power. Till now, it has been treated in the mainstream media as a ‘conspiracy theory,’ backed by no concrete evidence. But the direct participation of US and Ukrainian mercenaries in the conflict is sure to raise questions in Indian national security circles. Even if there is no direct involvement of the US government, the prospect of Russo–Ukrainian War veterans training and equipping EAOs for drone warfare is threatening to India. Since EAOs on both sides of the border are linked to one another, Indian armed groups can get hold of these drones easily, and it would pose a serious security risk to India.

Incidentally, Bangladesh can be caught up in the process. The KNF has substantial links to armed groups in India and Myanmar, and if they can obtain some advanced drones, it will be a tactical and strategic nightmare for Bangladeshi forces. At present, Bangladesh’s air defense arsenal is negligible and antiquated, and its military and civilian infrastructure would be fully vulnerable to potential drone strikes. In another scenario, the acquisition of advanced drones by the Arakan Army would also be threatening to Bangladesh’s national security.

Conclusion

The involvement of US and Ukrainian PMCs in the Myanmar conflict and the potential acquisition of advanced drones by the EAOs would be akin to opening a Pandora’s box for regional security. It would generate a complex set of challenges for all regional states by emboldening insurgent and secessionist groups, fueling new types of warfare, and generating enhanced threats to state sovereignty and territorial integrity in South and Southeast Asia.